Publication Date: May 2026
All loans facilitated by The Money Platform are classified under a single high-risk category, and we have a single expected and a single actual default rate for all loans
First published actual annualised return is the return published within four months of the Company’s financial year-end, for example by 31 May. It is a fixed figure showing the actual return achieved 12 months after the original forecast was made. It does not include any assumptions about future recoveries.
Latest published actual annualised return is the return published after the first published return. This later figure reflects any payments received from overdue customers between the date of the first published return and the date the latest return was prepared. It does not include any assumptions about recoveries after the date of analysis.
2025-26 Actual Returns (as at May 2026)
Returns for 2025–26 were broadly in line with expectations, with a first published Investor Return, after losses and fees, of 15.9% as at May 2026, compared with a forecast lifetime annualised return of 16.9%. While this is modestly below forecast at the first publication point, we expect the Actual Return to rise as customers work through our collections process.
The Non Payment rate was lower than forecast at 6.1%, compared with an expected 6.9%, while the Delinquency rate was higher than forecast at 16.8%, compared with 15.4%. This suggests that, while more customers were in arrears at the reporting date, a greater proportion remained engaged with us and had not progressed into Non Payment. Improved repayment and customer support tools are helping us provide the right assistance to customers in arrears so that they can get back on track.
The 2025–26 cohort also reflects a business that is lending at greater scale across a broader customer base. As the Mid Prime product becomes a more established part of the portfolio, the returns analysis is beginning to provide a clearer view of performance which allows us to make iterative improvements to our decisioning.
2026-27 Forecast Returns
For our financial year 2026-27 (loans maturing between 1st February 2026 – 31st January 2027) we are forecasting an Investor Return (after losses and fees) of 13.0% p.a..
Background
The key assumptions for the 2026-27 Forecast Returns are:
• A Non Payment rate of 7.8%
• A Managed Delinquency rate of 15.5%
The 2026–27 forecast returns have been set on the basis that performance will soften compared with the actual returns delivered in 2025–26, using the position available as at May 2026. The higher forecast and actual returns seen in prior years vs 2026-27 reflect a combination of supportive and operational factors. These included stronger real household income growth, lower levels of unemployment and inflation, more government support for consumers and periods in which lending liquidity remained relatively constrained.
For the year ahead, our base case is that customer affordability will come under greater pressure than in the preceding period. Inflation is expected to remain above the Bank of England’s target for longer than previously anticipated, while higher energy costs may create a further squeeze on disposable income. In parallel, labour market conditions are expected to weaken, partly as businesses absorb the impact of higher minimum wage costs and increased employment taxes.
The unemployment outlook is a key downside factor. The OBR expects unemployment to rise through the year and reach 5.3% in 2026. Although this would represent a relatively moderate deterioration, it is still likely to create some pressure across the customers that we serve.
The broader UK economic environment is also expected to remain muted. As in recent years, we do not anticipate a meaningful acceleration in growth. The OBR’s March 2026 forecast points to real GDP growth of 1.1% for 2026, while geopolitical instability in the Middle East and its potential impact on energy markets create additional downside risk.
Inflation remains another area of concern. The OBR’s March outlook forecasts CPI reaching 2.3% in 2026, but we consider the balance of risk to be skewed to the upside given current global volatility, fragile supply conditions, and the potential for further energy price shocks.
Taken together, these factors support a cautious view of expected returns. Consumer confidence and spending capacity remain uncertain, global trade tensions could intensify, and weak productivity continues to limit the UK’s growth potential. On that basis, we expect 2026–27 returns to remain below long-run historic levels and broadly consistent with a more difficult operating environment.
There is also a risk that outcomes could be materially worse than our central assumptions. A deeper recession, more persistent inflation, larger-than-expected interest rate increases, further regulatory intervention, political instability, or other adverse macroeconomic developments could weaken borrower performance and lead to higher delinquency and non payment rates.
Methodology for 2026-27
The Forecast Annualised Lifetime Return represents the expected investor return, calculated on an Internal Rate of Return basis, for loans maturing between 1 February 2026 and 31 January 2027 (our company’s financial year) over the life of the loans. We will continue to update the actual returns (including recoveries) for our cohorts.
The Forecast return is an IRR calculated on the basis of historic performance of our loan book adjusted for forward-looking expectations. We are constantly improving our credit decisioning as we accumulate data but given the macroeconomic uncertainties, we have included a buffer on our historical loss rate.
The Forecast Return assumes an investor invests in a diversified portfolio of our loans each month throughout the Forecast Return period, and in proportion to the volume of loans reaching maturity each month by the Company.
We no longer display a “Net” Return, which was previously shown after applying assumptions for tax and uninvested cash weighting. We found that making assumptions about lenders’ individual tax positions caused confusion, while forecasting cash drag accurately was not practical given the short-term nature of our loans.
For the purposes of this Outcomes Statement the Forecast Annualised lifetime return is based on expected cashflows from three different loan outcome-cohorts:
• Performing Loans, being those that are fully repaid within the reporting period.
• Non Payment loans, being a loan contract which is more than 90 days overdue.
• Managed Delinquency loans, being those that at the time of reporting have only made partial payments or have entered into an alternative payment plan.
Reasons why the actual return may differ from the Forecast Return:
• The non-payment and/or delinquency rate being different to expected.
• The UK macroeconomic situation in the period being different to expected.
• The Company’s loan volumes each month being different from forecast.
• Changes to the regulatory environment in which the Company operates.
• An investor’s portfolio mix being different to the Company’s volume mix.
• The number of lenders on the platform impacting the uninvested weighting.
• Tax payable on interest earned may reduce investors’ final net return.
• Delays in payments being distributed to lenders due to technical or personnel issues.
• Changes to The Money Platform’s economic model, for example a change to the income allocations between lenders and the platform (which would be communicated in advance to loan participation).
• Lower interest income if customers repay earlier than expected.
What is the expected cash flow return profile of The Money Platform’s loans?
Our target is for a monthly loan cohort as a whole to have broken even by 3 months after the maturity date (e.g. a 12 month loans issued on 1st May 2026 are targeted to reach IRR break even (0% return) by August 2027), and to reach Forecast IRR 6 months after that (i.e. 9 months after the loan maturity date). The First published Actual annualised return for the year ended 31 January 2026 (our company year end) above includes months that are several months past their maturity date (e.g. February 2025) and months that have only recently matured (e.g. January 2026). Prior to 2024-25 we analysed cohorts based on loan start date, rather than maturity date.
What is an “Internal Rate of Return”?
The internal rate of return on an investment is the annualised effective compounded return rate or rate of return that sets the net present value of all cash flows (both positive and negative) from the investment equal to zero.
IRR is designed to account for the time value of money. A given return on investment received at a given time is worth more than the same return received at a later time, so the latter would yield a lower IRR than the former, if all other factors are equal.
2024-25 Actual Returns (as at May 2025)
Returns in 2024-25 were ahead of expectations with an Investor Return (after losses and fees) now at 29.9% (May 2025). This is ahead of the previous three years at the same point and we should, as collections activity takes place, see returns significantly exceed the forecast for 2024-25.
This was largely driven by a lower than expected Non Payment rate of 4.9%, whilst the Delinquency rate was slightly higher than forecast at 14.2%. This reflects our continuous efforts to proactively work with customers to help them manage their loan with us, even when in difficulty. As we have expanded into the ‘Mid Prime’ segment we have seen higher engagement during the collections process and as a result defaults reduce.
Over the past year we have continued to iteratively upgrade our credit decision tools and importantly rebuilt our payment infrastructure, enhancing them with new payment methods including open banking payments. This has reduced payment friction - a key cause of delayed payments which can then lead to arrears.
We continued to roll out our ‘Mid Prime’ longer duration loan product, and these loans are included in our returns analysis shown here.
2023-24 Actual Returns (as at May 2025)
Returns in 2023-24 were ahead of expectations with an Investor Return (after losses and fees) now at 44.7% (May 2025). This is ahead of the last two years at the same point and we should, as collections activity takes place, see returns significantly exceed the forecast for 2023-24.
One important continued reason for outperformance is improved credit decisioning tools we have developed and utilised, resulting in only the very best borrowers within this credit market being selected for a loan.
The macro-economy has performed broadly in line with expectations from May 2023. In recent months, strong wage growth and a falling rate of inflation has boosted real incomes offering a slight macro tailwind for repayments.
2022-23 Updated Returns ( as at May 2025)
Returns in 2022-23 are substantially ahead of expectations with an Investor IRR of 39.8%. This reflects a strong collections performance for loans on payment plans after the first 12 months
Our response to the Cost of Living was immediate and thorough, the macroeconomic landscape for the year was not as poor as originally expected, so our constrained lending resulted in above forecast returns.
2021-22 Updated Returns ( as at May 2025)
Returns in 2021-22 are ahead of expectations. Returns for 2021-22 did underperform initially, with the cohort only just reaching lender breakeven in at the first reporting date in May 2022. The year was one of two halves with performance markedly weaker in the first half as the U.K. exited Covid-19 restrictions in the Spring and Summer of 2021, with the well-documented effects of the ‘pingdemic’ and end of furlough, producing weak credit performance. By contrast the performance over the Autumn of 2021 was stronger as the economy returned to a more ‘normal’ state.
We said in our initial assessment in May 2022 that we expected strong collections from the 2021-22 year and this has now been borne out. With an Investor Return (after losses and fees) now at 27.0%, this follows the Non Payment Rate falling from 7.8% to 5.2% and the Delinquency Rate dropped from 11.7% to 10.9%.
2020-21 Updated Returns (As at May 2025)
Returns in 2020-21 have continued to outperform expectations, with both the Non Payment and Delinquency rates now below the forecast level. Collections are now minimal on this cohort as most loans have either completed or defaulted and so further improvements in performance are likely to be muted.
It should be noted that the figures above refer to the past and that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
